Stability Analysis of an SIRS Model with Saturated Incidence Rate and Treatment
Madhusudhan Reddy K1*, Lakshmi Narayan K2, Ravindra Reddy B3
1Department of Mathematics, Vardhaman College of Engineering, Hyderabad, India
1Department of Mathematics, Vignan Institute of Technology & Sciences, Hyderabad, India
3Department of Mathematics, JNTUH College of Engineering, Kukatpally, Hyderabad, India
*Corresponding Author E-mail: kmsreddy.vce@gmail.com
ABSTRACT:
This research article attempts a study of SIRS epidemic model where saturated incidence rate under treatment forms a mathematical condition, the assumption being that there are two distinct possibilities informing the rate at which treatment rate is administered: one which remains unvarying over a period of time regardless of the number of infected individuals receiving treatment; another where the proportion at which treatment is provided is determined by the number of individuals directly affected by the epidemic. The existence and stability of equilibrium points are explored for both the cases. The analytical results are in fine agreement with numerical simulations.
KEYWORDS: SIRS epidemic model, saturated incidence rate, basic reproduction number, treatment, global stability.
1. INTRODUCTION:
Mathematical modeling, that concerns itself with population dynamics of infectious diseases, has been playing a prime role on account of its significance enabling a deep understanding of epidemiological patterns and disease control over a long period (Hethcote[4]). Epidemic models have long been employed to describe rapid outbreaks of diseases that occur in a period of less than one year, while endemic models have been employed for studying diseases over longer periods, during which time there is a renewal of susceptible by births or recovery from temporary immunity. An important aspect of the mathematical study of epidemiology is the formulation of the incidence rate function. The bilinear and standard incidence rates have frequently figured in classical epidemic models [1,4,6,7,10,11,12].
Capasso and Serio (1973) [2] introduced a
saturated incidence rate of the form
. Pathak et al. (2010) [8] proposed a modified
saturated incidence rate of the form
and also considered
transmission rate
which exhibits a
saturation effect to explain the presence of a maximal value pertaining
to the frequency of contact established by an individual over a period with
members of a given population distributed due to sharing the space
demographically which will culminate for societal existence.
Epidemiological models have become popular
in recent times from mathematicians and researchers for their role in
treatment functions within the realm of possibility offered by dynamic
equations. The key point to bear in mind is that as the count of
individuals vulnerable to infections increases, society’s resources need
to be expedited to counter the virulative spread of infection. Treatment
besides keeping an individual in isolation or quarantine is a vital means to
minimize the spread of diseases such as measles, AIDS, tuberculosis and flu
(Wang [5]). Classical epidemic models work on the assumption that the
treatment rate of infectives is directly proportional to the number of the
infectives. This does not keep compliance because the resources for
treatment are scant but they should be large enough. In fact, every community
is expected to have the required levels of mechanism for treatment. If
it is too expansive, the community ends up with needless burden uncalled for.
If it is not large enough, the community stands the risk of a massive
outbreak of the disease due to rapid infection. Thus, it is important to make
out a viable means to tackle the disease. In paper
[3], Wang and Ruan fostered to adopting an ideal and uniform treatment
which has been found to be facilitative when the number of infectives is
exceedingly high and simulates for an optimal bearing capacity. In 2006, Wang
[5] proposed a treatment function
defined by
![]()
where r > 0 is a constant and represents the capacity of treatment for infectives. This implies that rate at which treatment given is proportional to the number of the infectives when the capacity for treating each and every infected individual becomes difficult, and if that isn’t the case, then the model assumes maximal capacity. This occurs for instance in situation when patients need to be hospitalized whereas the hospital is not accommodative in terms of number of beds available. This stands true in cases where the supply of medicine is either falling short or the prescribed medicine is not readily in stock.
This paper illustrates the following SIRS epidemic model which considers a modified saturated incidence rate under treatment:
(1)
where ![]()
and
pertain to
the numbers of susceptible, infective, and recovered individuals at time
respectively.
refers
to the rate of recruitment of population,
signifies the
proportionality constant, while
apparently mark the saturation
parameters,
shows the
natural death rate of the population,
points to the natural
recovery rate at which individuals who are down with an infection recover,
while
reports the rate at
which those who have recuperated revert to the former condition and become
vulnerable again.
Case-I: SIRS
Model with![]()
2. EQUILIBRIUM STATES AND THEIR STABILITY:
In this case system (1) takes the following form
(2)
System (2) always has a disease-free
equilibrium
and if
system (2) allows a
unique endemic equilibrium
where

Define basic reproduction number
(3)
Theorem 1. The plane
is a manifold of the system
(2), which is attracting in the first octant.
Proof: Summing up the three equations in (2) and denoting
we have
(4)
It is clear that
is a solution of (4) and for
any
the
general solution of (4) is
![]()
Thus,
as
which implies the
conclusion.
Thus the system (2) easily reduces to
(5)
To test the local stability of the
disease-free equilibrium
and the endemic equilibrium
, we
rescale (5)
by![]()
Then we obtain
(6)
where

The trivial equilibrium
of system (6) is
the disease-free equilibrium
of model (2) and the unique
positive equilibrium
of system (6) is the endemic
equilibrium
of model (2) if and only if
and
, where
![]()
The Jacobian matrix of system (6)
corresponding to
is
![]()
Theorem 2. The disease-free equilibrium
of system (6) is
(i) a unstable saddle point if ![]()
(ii) a saddle point if ![]()
(iii) a stable node if ![]()
Here
iff
The Jacobian matrix of the system (6)
corresponding to
is

We have that
![]()
Since
it follows that ![]()
![]()
The sign of
is determined by
![]()
Substituting
into
, we obtain
![]()
Since
and
, we have
Clearly
if
and![]()
Hence the endemic equilibrium
is
locally asymptotically stable if
and![]()
3. GLOBAL STABILITY:
To establish the
global stability of the disease free equilibrium it will suffice to
prove beyond a shadow of doubt
when
The
positive nature of the solutions concerned,
take one in the direction
of the differential inequality given by

Here
are
linear, and
as
if![]()
Since
as
,
which implies that the disease free equilibrium is globally stable.
Theorem 3. System (5) does not have nontrivial periodic orbits in the positive quadrant
if
Proof. Consider system (5) for
Take a Dulac function
then
![]()
Clearly ![]()
By using Bendixon - Dulac criterion [9], it can be concluded
that system (5) does not have
nontrivial periodic orbits in the positive quadrant if ![]()
Theorem 4. (i)
If
then
the system (5) has a unique disease free equilibrium
which is globally
asymptotically stable.
(ii) If
then the system (5) has a
disease free equilibrium
which is a unstable saddle
and a unique endemic equilibrium
which is locally stable.
Since the system does not have nontrivial periodic orbits in the positive
quadrant,
must be globally stable if
and ![]()
Case-II: SIRS
Model with ![]()
4. EQUILIBRIUM STATES AND THEIR STABILITY:
In this case system (1) takes the following form
(7)
Thus the system (7) easily reduces to
(8)
Substituting
, we obtain
(9)
where

For equilibrium point, we have
(10)
Theorem 5. By Descartes’ rule of signs, the equation (10) has
(i) at most one positive root if
and
with
(ii) at most one positive root if
and
with
(ii) at most two positive roots if
and
with ![]()
Hence by Theorem 5, the system (9) has at least one
positive equilibrium![]()
To investigate the local stability of the positive
equilibrium
of the system (9), the
Jacobian matrix given below enters the picture

If
and
then
is
asymptotically stable.
5. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS:
Systems (2), (5) and (9) are simulated with various parameters keeping an eye on possible dynamical behaviour resulting from the interaction or based on conditions demanded by the problem.
Example 1: If one consider the parameters
![]()
System (2) has for predictable reasons endemic
equilibrium point
with
and is locally
asymptotically stable (Fig.1). Fig.2 reveals how there is absence of nontrivial
periodic orbits in positive quadrant with the system remaining globally
asymptotically stable.
Fig.1
Fig.2
Assuming the parameter values, the following details furnished below
The system has disease free equilibrium with
and is
locally stable (Fig.3)
Fig.3
Fig.4
Example 2: If we take the parameter values
![]()
Further Fig.4 has been depicted for varied values of
with all
other parameter values remaining the same as they have been for Fig.1 while for
the second system
decreases as
increases.
Then the system (9) has equilibrium point
and
is asymptotically stable (Fig.5). Further from Fig.6 we see that dependence of
on
which
shows that
decreases as
increases.
Fig.5
Fig.6
6. CONCLUSION:
This paper expresses an interest in coming up with a SIRS epidemic model to simulate the limited resources for the treatment of patients, which can occur during time that patients need to be hospitalized with limited beds being a limiting factor or shortfall of medicine for treatment.
It has been brought to light
that basic reproduction number
exercises a pivotal role in taming the disease. When
there exist no
positive equilibrium, in which circumstance disease free equilibrium is
rendered globally asymptotically stable, i.e., the disease falls away. But when
the
unique endemic equilibrium is globally stable under some parametric conditions.
In addition, treatment rate and availability impact the control of the disease.
Any disease stands banished only if the appropriate treatment increases and is
made available. Numerical results affirm the analytical results obtained
through the equations.
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Received on 28.08.2017 Modified on 28.09.2017
Accepted on 11.10.2017 © RJPT All right reserved
Research J. Pharm. and Tech 2017; 10(10):3305-3311.
DOI: 10.5958/0974-360X.2017.00586.8