Stability Analysis of an SIRS Model with Saturated Incidence Rate and Treatment

 

Madhusudhan Reddy K1*, Lakshmi Narayan K2, Ravindra Reddy B3

1Department of Mathematics, Vardhaman College of Engineering, Hyderabad, India

1Department of Mathematics, Vignan Institute of Technology & Sciences, Hyderabad, India

3Department of Mathematics, JNTUH College of Engineering, Kukatpally, Hyderabad, India

*Corresponding Author E-mail: kmsreddy.vce@gmail.com

 

ABSTRACT:

This research article attempts a study of SIRS epidemic model where saturated incidence rate under treatment forms a mathematical condition, the assumption being that there are two distinct possibilities informing the rate at which treatment rate is administered: one which remains unvarying over a period of time regardless of the number of infected individuals receiving treatment; another where the proportion at which treatment is provided is determined by the number of individuals directly affected by the epidemic. The existence and stability of equilibrium points are explored for both the cases. The analytical results are in fine agreement with numerical simulations. 

 

KEYWORDS: SIRS epidemic model, saturated incidence rate, basic reproduction number, treatment, global stability.

 

 


1. INTRODUCTION:

Mathematical modeling, that concerns itself with population dynamics of infectious diseases, has been playing a prime role on account of its significance enabling a deep understanding of epidemiological patterns and disease control over a long period (Hethcote[4]). Epidemic models have long been employed to describe rapid outbreaks of diseases that occur in a period of less than one year, while endemic models have been employed for studying diseases over longer periods, during which time there is a renewal of susceptible by births or recovery from temporary immunity. An important aspect of the mathematical study of epidemiology is the formulation of the incidence rate function. The bilinear and standard incidence rates have frequently figured in classical epidemic models [1,4,6,7,10,11,12].

 

Capasso and Serio (1973) [2] introduced a saturated incidence rate of the form. Pathak et al. (2010) [8] proposed a modified saturated incidence rate of the form  and also considered transmission rate which exhibits a saturation effect to explain the presence of a maximal value pertaining to the frequency of contact established by an individual over a period with members of a given population distributed due to sharing the space demographically which will culminate for societal existence.

 

Epidemiological models have become popular in recent times from mathematicians and researchers for their role in treatment functions within the realm of possibility offered by dynamic equations. The key point to bear in mind is that as the count of individuals vulnerable to infections increases, society’s resources need to be expedited to counter the virulative spread of infection. Treatment besides keeping an individual in isolation or quarantine is a vital means to minimize the spread of diseases such as measles, AIDS, tuberculosis and flu (Wang [5]). Classical epidemic models work on the assumption that the treatment rate of infectives is directly proportional to the number of the infectives. This does not keep compliance because the resources for treatment are scant but they should be large enough. In fact, every community is expected to have the required levels of mechanism for treatment. If it is too expansive, the community ends up with needless burden uncalled for. If it is not large enough, the community stands the risk of a massive outbreak of the disease due to rapid infection. Thus, it is important to make out a viable means to tackle the disease. In paper [3], Wang and Ruan fostered to adopting an ideal and uniform treatment which has been found to be facilitative when the number of infectives is exceedingly high and simulates for an optimal bearing capacity. In 2006, Wang [5] proposed a treatment function defined by

 

where r > 0 is a constant and represents the capacity of treatment for infectives. This implies that rate at which treatment given is proportional to the number of the infectives when the capacity for treating each and every infected individual becomes difficult, and if that isn’t the case, then the model assumes maximal capacity. This occurs for instance in situation when patients need to be hospitalized whereas the hospital is not accommodative in terms of number of beds available. This stands true in cases where the supply of medicine is either falling short or the prescribed medicine is not readily in stock.

 

This paper illustrates the following SIRS epidemic model which considers a modified saturated incidence rate under treatment:

                      (1)

 

where and pertain to  the numbers of susceptible, infective, and recovered individuals at timerespectively. refers to the rate of recruitment of population,  signifies the proportionality constant, while apparently mark the saturation parameters,  shows the natural death rate of the population, points to the natural recovery rate at which individuals who are down with an infection recover, while  reports the rate at which those who have recuperated revert to the former condition and become vulnerable again.


 

Case-I: SIRS Model with

 

2. EQUILIBRIUM STATES AND THEIR STABILITY:

In this case system (1) takes the following form

                                                                                                                      (2)

 

System (2) always has a disease-free equilibrium and if system (2) allows a unique endemic equilibrium where

Define basic reproduction number                                                                                              (3)

Theorem 1. The plane is a manifold of the system (2), which is attracting in the first octant.

Proof: Summing up the three equations in (2) and denoting  we have

                                                                                                                                                                                                             (4)

It is clear that is a solution of (4) and for any  the general solution of (4) is

Thus,  as  which implies the conclusion.

Thus the system (2) easily reduces to

                                                           (5)

 

To test the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium  and the endemic equilibrium, we rescale (5)

by

Then we obtain

                                                                                                                                                                                      (6)            

where 

The trivial equilibrium of system (6) is the disease-free equilibrium  of model (2) and the unique positive equilibrium  of system (6) is the endemic equilibrium of model (2) if and only if  and, where

The Jacobian matrix of system (6) corresponding to  is

Theorem 2. The disease-free equilibrium of system (6) is

(i) a unstable saddle point if

(ii) a saddle point if 

(iii) a stable node if 

Here   iff   

The Jacobian matrix of the system (6) corresponding to is

We have that

Since it follows that

The sign of is determined by

Substituting  into, we obtain

Since  and, we have  

Clearly  if  and

Hence the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if  and

 

3.      GLOBAL STABILITY:

To establish the global stability of the disease free equilibrium it will suffice to prove beyond a shadow of doubt when The positive nature of the solutions concerned,  take one in the direction of the differential inequality given by

Hereare linear, and  as if

Since  as , which implies that the disease free equilibrium is globally stable.

 

Theorem 3. System (5) does not have nontrivial periodic orbits in the positive quadrant

if  

Proof. Consider system (5) for  

Take a Dulac function  then

Clearly  

By using Bendixon - Dulac criterion [9], it can be concluded that system (5) does not have nontrivial periodic orbits in the positive quadrant if

 

Theorem 4. (i) If  then the system (5) has a unique disease free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable.

(ii) If  then the system (5) has a disease free equilibrium which is a unstable saddle and a unique endemic equilibriumwhich is locally stable. Since the system does not have nontrivial periodic orbits in the positive quadrant,  must be globally stable if  and

 

Case-II: SIRS Model with

 

4. EQUILIBRIUM STATES AND THEIR STABILITY:

 

In this case system (1) takes the following form

                                                                                                                    (7)

Thus the system (7) easily reduces to

                                                                                  (8)

Substituting         , we obtain

                                                                                                                                                                        (9)

where

For equilibrium point, we have

      (10)

 

Theorem 5. By Descartes’ rule of signs, the equation (10) has

(i)  at most one positive root if   and  with  

(ii)  at most one positive root if   and  with  

(ii)  at most two positive roots if    and  with

Hence by Theorem 5, the system (9) has at least one positive equilibrium

To investigate the local stability of the positive equilibrium  of the system (9), the Jacobian matrix given below enters the picture

If  and then is asymptotically stable.

 

5.   NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS:

Systems (2), (5) and (9) are simulated with various parameters keeping an eye on possible dynamical behaviour resulting from the interaction or based on conditions demanded by the problem.

 

Example 1: If one consider the parameters

System (2) has for predictable reasons endemic equilibrium point  with  and is locally asymptotically stable (Fig.1). Fig.2 reveals how there is absence of nontrivial periodic orbits in positive quadrant with the system remaining globally asymptotically stable.

 


 

Fig.1

 

Fig.2


Assuming the parameter values, the following details furnished below

The system has disease free equilibrium with and is locally stable (Fig.3)

 


Fig.3

 

Fig.4


 


Example 2: If we take the parameter values 

 


Further Fig.4 has been depicted for varied values of  with all other parameter values remaining the same as they have been for Fig.1 while for the second system  decreases as  increases.

 

Then the system (9) has equilibrium point  and is asymptotically stable (Fig.5). Further from Fig.6 we see that dependence of  on which shows that  decreases as  increases.

 

Fig.5

 

Fig.6

 

6. CONCLUSION:

This paper expresses an interest in coming up with a SIRS epidemic model to simulate the limited resources for the treatment of patients, which can occur during time that patients need to be hospitalized with limited beds being  a limiting factor or shortfall of medicine for treatment.

 

It has been brought to light that basic reproduction number exercises a pivotal role in taming the disease. When   there exist no positive equilibrium, in which circumstance disease free equilibrium is rendered globally asymptotically stable, i.e., the disease falls away. But when the unique endemic equilibrium is globally stable under some parametric conditions. In addition, treatment rate and availability impact the control of the disease. Any disease stands banished only if the appropriate treatment increases and is made available. Numerical results affirm the analytical results obtained through the equations.

 

7. REFERENCES:

1.       D. Xiao and S. Ruan, Global analysis of an epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate, Math. Biosci., 208 (2007), 419-429.

2.       V. Capasso and G. Serio, A generalization of the Kermack-McKendrick deterministic epidemic model, Math. Biosci., 42 (1978), 65–81.

3.       W. Wang, S. Ruan, Bifurcation in an epidemic model with constant removal rate of the infectives, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 291 (2004) 775

4.       H. W. Hethcote, The mathematics of infectious disease. SIAM Review. 42(4) (2000), 599–653

5.       W. Wang, Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with treatment, 201 (2006),58-71

6.       W. M. Liu, H. W. Hethcote and S. A. Levin, Dynamical behaviour of epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates, Journal of Mathematical Biology, 25 (1987), 359-380.

7.       S. Ruan, W. Wang, Dynamical behaviour of an epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate, Journal of Differential Equations, 188 (2003), 135-163.

8.       S. Pathak, A. Maiti and G. P. Samanta, Rich dynamics of an SIR epidemic model, Nonlinear Analysis: Modeling and Control, 15(1) (2010), 71–81.

9.       Z. F. Zhang, T. R. Ding, W.Z. Huang and X. Z. Dong, Qualitative Theory of Differential Equations, Translations of Mathematical Monographs, Vol.101, Am. Math. Soc. Providence. (1992).

10.     K. Madhusudhan Reddy, K. Lakshmi Narayan and B. Ravindra Reddy, Mathematical study of a deterministic SIR epidemic model with modified nonlinear incidence rate, Int. Journal of Mathematical Science and Engg. Applications, 10 (2016), 47-55.

11.     G. Ranjith Kumar , K. Lakshmi Narayan and B. Ravindra Reddy, Mathematical study of an SIR epidemic model with nonmonotone saturated incidence rate and white noise, Research Journal of  Pharmacy and Technology, 9(11)(2016), 1575-1580.

12.     G. Ranjith Kumar , K. Lakshmi Narayan and B. Ravindra Reddy, Dynamics of SIR epidemic model with a saturated incidence rate under stochastic influence, Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics (GJPAM), 11(2)(2015), 175-179.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Received on 28.08.2017          Modified on 28.09.2017

Accepted on 11.10.2017        © RJPT All right reserved

Research J. Pharm. and Tech 2017; 10(10):3305-3311.

DOI: 10.5958/0974-360X.2017.00586.8